Political alignments are currently taking shape in the country. Many politicians had hoped that BBI would rescue their dwindling political careers. The post of the Prime Minister as proposed in the BBI bill would probably go to the region with most voters.
The political bigwigs have been thrown into confusion not knowing how to distribute the limited seats left for grabs. As it stands, they would have to deal with the current constitution with only the presidency and deputy president seats left for the elite to fight for.
ODM leader Raila Odinga is among the top politicians who have been forced back to the drawing board to restrategize. According to media reports, it’s understood that president Uhuru Kenyatta told NASA heads to unite ahead of 2022.
The President was optimistic that the BBI would sail through. However, the headache was how to distribute the positions among the One Kenya Alliance members. The President held a number of meeting with the opposition heads promising them the Prime Minister’s post.
Musalia-Kalonzo factor
With the BBI dismissal, it would probably be hard for the ODM leader to convince the OKA members to support him one more time. Already, ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka have both declared interest in running for the top seat come 2022.
Kalonzo, in a past event, said that it would be stupid of him to support Raila one more time.
“It will be unthinkable to support Mr. Odinga for the third time. I will be the most stupid person to once again support his bid without a measure of reciprocity,” Kalonzo stated
He added that he would rather retire than support Raila again
“I don’t see any person convincing me to support him. I’d rather go back to Tseikuru (his rural home) than support him again. At the age of 67, this is my moment. I must run. If I don’t, when would I?” He added.
Musalia Mudavadi on his part stated that Raila is not to be trusted. He said that there’s a serious deficit of trust in NASA.
“We have a very serious deficit of trust in Nasa. In fact, maybe it is irredeemable,” Mudavadi said.
It’s not clear whether Raila would give in to pressure and support one of the OKA members. They accused him in the past of not keeping his word. They claim they had a pre-election agreement dubbed the ‘ NASA MoU’ that stated how they would support each other.
In the MoU, it’s believed that they agreed that Raila would support them after the 2017 elections. Raila dismissed these claims saying that they didn’t win the elections so the MoU was null and void. We wait to see how the three would play this out this time around.
Mount Kenya Factor
A section of Mount Kenya leaders has come out to denounce their support for Raila. Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru said in a press conference held in Laikipia that they had not settled on Raila as their presidential candidate.
Read also; “We didn’t endorse Raila” Waiguru now claims after BBI dismissal.
“There has been speculation that we are leaning towards Raila Odinga, that is not true. In fact, what we are doing is consultations so whoever we think will articulate our issues is the one we will back,” Waiguru said.
She added that they were open to consulting with other spirants who would champion the interest of the Mountain.
“Many of residents think we are divided on account that we are talking to these people who are seeking the top seat. You will see meetings of that kind since we are open to all,” she added.
Jubilee Wrangles
The ongoing wrangles in Jubilee Party could affect Raila’s chances of ascending to the Presidency. A number of President’s diehards have called for the removal of top leadership in the party. They believe that Party’s Secretary-General doesn’t serve the interest of the party.
Rafael Tuju has been accused of focusing so much on ODM while destroying Jubilee.
Nyeri Town MP Ngunjiri Wambugu called for Jubilee’s Secretary-General ouster. Ngunjiri accused Tuju of bypassing the party organs in choosing Jubilee aspirant in the Kiagu MCA seat.
“When we finished the Kiambaa by-elections, we had a post-mortem meeting at Jubilee headquarters, all of us in that meeting – including the SG and David Murathe agreed that we would not field a candidate in any by-election in Mount Kenya, until we had implemented lessons learned,” He said.
“However and more importantly this decision confirms the fact that Hon Raphael Tuju is clearly completely disconnected from the Jubilee base. It also lends credence to fears that Tuju is no longer working in the interests of the Party,” He added.
Raila will now have to focus on consolidating his support. The Deputy President is another factor that has given Raila a run for his money. The DP is determined to win at all costs. As elections draw near, we await to see how things will unfold.
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