ODM leader Raila Odinga is a man of many hats. His style of politics is appealing to many Kenyans. We all know him for his wittiness and using funny riddles, better known as ‘Vitendawili.’
Raila has been in government, and his contribution to Kenyan politics is commendable. He’s one of those who have seen it all.
Kenyan politics has often been an arena for the tribal contest. Raila, in a way, has survived all these obstacles. He has been imprisoned, tortured, and still, he overcame. Additionally, he has featured in every regime.
In Kibaki’s administration, he was the Prime Minister, and in Uhuru’s government, Odinga has positioned himself as the advisor.
Many of his followers believe that the enigma of Kenyan politics deserves to lead the country one day. Raila unsuccessfully contested for presidency in 2013 and 2017, creating many friends and many enemies as well.
The 2022 general elections are drawing closer, and many are waiting to see if the ODM leader will be vying.
Some believe that Odinga should back another candidate for the top seat. Will he yield to pressure?
Mistrust.
In 2017, ODM entered into a coalition with other parties that formed the NASA coalition. There are allegations that the parties agreed to back Raila who in turn would return the favor in 2022.
There have been many controversies surrounding the MoU between the NASA heads. The ODM legislators have in the past condemned those asking for endorsement. They claim that Odinga did not win the election making the MoU null and void.
The real test is now waiting for Raila. Understandably, the ODM leader is considering supporting one of the NASA principals and going it alone. With the BBI now in limbo, Odinga has to either find ways to mend his relationship with the NASA principals or find other allies who will support his bid.
Luhya Vote
ANC Leader, Musalia Mudavadi, has stated that he will be going for the presidency. In reports obtained by KRN, Musalia has told his close friends that Raila cannot be trusted.
While on a visit to popularize his presidential bid in the coast, he stated that there’s mistrust In NASA that can not be redeemed.
“We have serious deficit of trust in NASA, it’s irredeemable.” He said
Mistrust brings Raila’s chances of winning the Luhya vote into question.
Can he win the presidency without the Luhya vote?
Ukambani factor
Another hurdle that the ODM leader is battling is the Ukambai bloc. Kalonzo Musyoka, believed to be the region’s kingpin, has also shown interest in contesting for the top seat.
Kalonzo claims that he better resigns from politics than supporting Raila for the third time. He added that it is unthinkable for him to Raila for the third time.
Kalonzo argues that it’s difficult to rebuild NASA since Edwin Sifuna, ODM’s secretary-general, had announced that NASA is dead.
“It is difficult to build the confidence of rebranding NASA when their SG has announced that NASA is dead.” He said.
Jimmy Wangiji
Raila allies are beginning to chart their ways of surviving politically. Jimmy Wanjigi, a business mogul, has also declared that he will be vying for the top seat. Wanjigi was one of the biggest sponsors of Raila’s bid in 2017.
With Wanjigi now showing signs of ditching Raila and going it alone, this will force the ODM leader to look for other sponsors.
Similarly, the ODM boss faces another big problem in consolidating votes from Mt. Kenya. The region is considered one of the most populated regions in Kenya. Without the support of the central support, one is likely to lose the presidency.
Mt. Kenya
William Ruto, the current deputy president, has seized the opportunity of tarnishing Raila’s name in Mt. Kenya. His troops and most trusted allies have made sure that Raila is unsalable in the region. Gatundu South MP, Moses Kuria, likened promoting Raila in Mt. Kenya to selling pork in a mosque.
“I am not sure whether Mt. Kenya have settled on a candidate, but I can tell you that one (Raila) is a tough sell in Mt. Kenya.” He said during an interview with a local station.
Furthermore, Ruto’s close allies from Mt. Kenya believe that Raila was the architect of their problems in Jubilee. Moses Kuria got removed from his position as Vice-Chairperson of the Transport, Infrastructure, Public Works and Housing Committee, Kimani Ichung’wa from budget committee chairmanship, Kipchumba Murkomen from senate majority leader, among others who were frustrated by Jubilee’s administration.
In reiteration, Ruto allies are focusing on ensuring that the ODM boss doesn’t win in the 2022 generation election.
Betrayal
Raila’s point men have also shown signs of ditching the party, citing frustration from those surrounding Raila.
Migori governor Okoth Obado has stated he will be vying for the presidency. Migori is considered one of Raila’s strongholds. The rebellious acts from some of his allies could cost him the presidency in 2022.
Will Raila Odinga convince the NASA principals to support him one more?
